Edit: May 14, 2014
Material was added on May 14 to update my Eagle Ford Model, see end of post.
My assumption is that if the overall TX estimate is 20% too low, that the EF estimate will also be low by about 20%, if that is correct then the %EF/TX estimate may be close to correct. One possible problem is that because the percentage of TX C+C output from the EF play has been growing, the lag in accurate data may cause the %EF/TX estimate to be too low.
Figure 2- Chart by Dennis Coyne (with help from Kevin Carter)
Texas Condensate and Natural Gas
Aside from Texas and OPEC we have little data worldwide on condensate output.
Output of C+C from OPEC and Texas accounted for about 45% of world C+C output in 2013 (EIA data), if the rest of the World has condensate output in similar proportions to OPEC and TX, then it is possible that the increase in world C+C output since 2005 has been all condensate and that crude output has not increased.
The problem is that we lack the data to verify this, so in my view the focus should remain on crude plus condensate output.
Eagle Ford Model
Annual Discount Rate 7%
Each month from Aug 2014 to Dec 2017 (41 months) has a separate well profile, with each successive month slightly lower than the next. So between the blue and red curves shown in figure 7 there are 41 separate well profiles and they continue below the red curve as well.